Even before this season started, we already knew that the Russian team would be the early favorites for gold in the Team Event at the Beijing Olympics - and that has a lot to do with how much they have cultivated their skaters in every discipline over the past four years. The women are dominating even more than when the Medvedeva-Zagitova rivalry was fresh, the pairs have regained their place in the world, the reigning World dance champs are Russian, and the men - arguably their weakest discipline - have improved in depth and difficulty.
This will be a preview of what’s to come in Beijing, where the Russian Olympic Committee will be medal favorites in four of the five figure skating events and are likely bringing home more than a few medals.
2021-22 Russian Figure Skating Championships predictions
Unofficial hashtag: #чр2022
Women top ten predictions
GOLD Kamila Valieva
SILVER Alexandra Trusova
BRONZE Elizaveta Tuktamysheva
4. Anna Shcherbakova
5. Maiia Khromykh
6. Sofia Muravieva
7. Adeliia Petrosian
8. Anastasia Zinina
9. Sofia Samodelkina
10. Kseniia Sinitsyna
This field is insane. Even without Daria Usacheva and Alena Kostornaia, both of whom withdrew with injury, this field is insane. As is the case every season at Russian Nationals, this will be a battle between the Olympic age-eligible skaters and the not-yet Olympic age-eligible skaters. Even so, Kamila Valieva comes in as the heavy favorite, and we have perhaps not seen such a clear favorite at Russian Nationals since the early days of Evgenia Medvedeva domination.
The unknown factor here will be Alexandra Trusova, who hasn’t been in competition since Skate America due to injury. Like Yuzuru Hanyu at Japan Nationals, we don’t really know how her training has been since Skate America; but unlike Hanyu, we know that Trusova was looking very strong earlier this season. Even with watered down content this week, she can very well land on the podium.
Elizaveta Tuktamysheva’s renaissance continues - even after many thought that her silver at Worlds last year may have been the pinnacle of that renaissance. The fire in her eyes continues to burn this season, and if she can put down two clean or near-clean programs, she can very well be part of that conversation. But perhaps the one who has biggest range in placements could be three-time reigning champ Anna Shcherbakova, whose consistency this season has not be at its best. She’s much more dependent on clean skates and whichever quad (or even quads?) that she will decide to put in her free.
Russia has already said that they will not name the final Olympic team until after Europeans, and so my guess is that the Olympic spots will come down to a battle at Europeans in January among the skaters who finish second to fourth. There’s just such an embarrassment of riches here - it will be a lot of heartbreak for whoever doesn’t end up getting through.
Men top ten predictions
GOLD Mikhail Kolyada
SILVER Evgeni Semenenko
BRONZE Dmitri Aliev
4. Makar Ignatov
5. Andrei Mozalev
6. Mark Kondratiuk
7. Petr Gumennik
8. Ilya Yablokov
9. Alexander Samarin
10. Gleb Lutfullin
The depth of Russian men’s skating has absolutely improved over the past few seasons, but the consistency hasn’t been there yet this year. And you really could see a whole lot of these top eight to ten guys finishing in the top five or even medaling. Clean programs will be incredibly key for these skaters, as a lot of them have very similar technical content.
Mikhail Kolyada, on paper, is the favorite for his fourth Russian title, though he has been battling with errors a lot more this season than his comeback season last year. We’ve seen some terrific skating from Evgeni Semenenko, who throws himself more into his choreography than any other of these guys, and could very well be the surprise winner this week. And former Russian champ Dmitri Aliev, who made the Olympic team four years ago, have shown signs of brilliance internationally but haven’t put it all together. He will need to do that this week.
Makar Ignatov is likely the one who could dark-horse it the most - he has shown more consistency than many of the other guys here, but his stamina is always an issue in the free skate. Even if he skates cleanly, his free skate has the tendency to grind to a halt in the second half, which could play a role. Andrei Mozalev has been on a rise after a slow start, Mark Kondratiuk was the hero at Nebelhorn in earning the third Olympic spot, and Petr Gumennik has looked stronger than ever. The men’s event could be messy, but it could also be full of drama.
Dance top five predictions
GOLD Victoria Sinitsina/Nikita Katsalapov
SILVER Alexandra Stepanova/Ivan Bukin
BRONZE Diana Davis/Gleb Smolkin
4. Tiffani Zagorski/Jonathan Guerreiro
5. Anastasia Skoptcova/Kirill Aleshin
On paper, it would seem like the top two dance spots are very much spoken for already. Barring major and multiple mistakes this week, Victoria Sinitsina/Nikita Katsalapov and Alexandra Stepanova/Ivan Bukin will be your top two. The biggest question mark and the most intriguing battle will be for third, and we would’ve never thought it would be the case a year ago.
Diana Davis/Gleb Smolkin have somehow been putting up some eye-popping scores in their first senior season, and all of this has been at the expense of Tiffani Zagorski/Jonathan Guerreiro, who have been in that third spot for the past few years but have missed almost the entire season due to illness for both skaters. It is tough to make your debut, especially in dance, where the precision of levels comes from lots of feedback during the season. I’d imagine their showdown will extend to Europeans.
Pairs top five predictions
GOLD Anastasia Mishina/Aleksandr Galliamov
SILVER Evgenia Tarasova/Vladimir Morozov
BRONZE Aleksandra Boikova/Dmitrii Kozlovskii
4. Daria Pavliuchenko/Denis Khodykin
5. Yasmina Kadyrova/Ivan Balchenko
Last year, eventual World champions Anastasia Mishina/Aleksandr Galliamov didn’t even make the podium at Nationals. This year, they come in undefeated internationally and looking very much like one of the favorites for gold in Beijing. In some ways, this will be a big test for them to see how they really handle their status as favorites.
Either way, the podium looks to be some combo of them, Evgenia Tarasova/Vladimir Morozov, and Aleksandra Boikova/Dmitrii Kozlovskii. But last year’s bronze medalists, Daria Pavliuchenko/Denis Khodykin, are very much going to need to embrace their status as dark horses to pull off the upset.