2022 Grand Prix Series: Standings and scenarios

Qualifiers and substitutes for the 2022 Grand Prix Final following the completion of 2022 Grand Prix Espoo

Dance qualifiers
Q1. Piper Gilles/Paul Poirier CAN - 30 (CAN 15, FIN 15)
Q2. Charlene Guignard/Marco Fabbri ITA - 30 (FRA 15, GBR 15)
Q3. Laurence Fournier Beaudry/Nikolaj Sorensen CAN - 28 (FRA 13, JPN 15)
Q4. Madison Chock/Evan Bates USA - 28 (USA 15, JPN 13)
Q5. Lilah Fear/Lewis Gibson GBR - 26 (CAN 13, GBR 13)
Q6. Kaitlin Hawayek/Jean-Luc Baker USA - 26 (USA 13, FIN 13)
—
S1. Marjorie Lajoie/Zachary Lagha CAN - 22 (CAN 11, GBR 11)
S2. Caroline Green/Michael Parsons USA - 20 (CAN 9, JPN 11)
S3. Evgeniia Lopareva/Geoffrey Brissaud FRA - 18 (FRA 11, JPN 7)

Men qualifiers
Q1. Ilia Malinin USA - 30 (USA 15, FIN 15)
Q2. Shoma Uno JPN - 30 (CAN 15, JPN 15)
Q3. Kao Miura JPN - 26 (USA 13, CAN 13)
Q4. Sota Yamamoto JPN - 26 (FRA 13, JPN 13)
Q5. Daniel Grassl ITA - 24 (USA 9, GBR 15)
Q6. Shun Sato JPN - 24 (GBR 11, FIN 13)
— Substitutes —
S1. Adam Siao Him Fa FRA - 22 (FRA 15, JPN 7)
S2. Junhwan Cha KOR - 22 (USA 11, JPN 11)
S3. Kazuki Tomono 20 (FRA 11, JPN 9)

Women qualifiers
Q1. Mai Mihara JPN - 30 (GBR 15, FIN 15)
Q2. Loena Hendrickx BEL - 28 (FRA 15, FIN 13)
Q3. Kaori Sakamoto JPN - 28 (USA 15, JPN 13)
Q4. Yelim Kim KOR - 28 (FRA 13, JPN 15)
Q5. Isabeau Levito USA - 26 (USA 13, GBR 13)
Q6. Rinka Watanabe JPN - 22 (CAN 15, JPN 7)
— Substitutes —
S1. Rion Sumiyoshi JPN - 22 (FRA 11, JPN 11)
S2. Young You KOR - 20 (CAN 11, GBR 9)
S3. Haein Lee KOR - 18 (USA 9, FRA 9)

Pairs qualifiers
Q1. Riku Miura/Ryuichi Kihara JPN - 30 (CAN 15, JPN 15)
Q2. Alexa Knierim/Brandon Frazier USA - 30 (USA 15, GBR 15)
Q3. Deanna Stellato-Dudek/Maxime Deschamps CAN - 28 (USA 13, FRA 15)
Q4. Emily Chan/Spencer Howe USA - 26 (CAN 13, JPN 13)
Q5, Rebecca Ghilardi/Filippo Ambrosini ITA - 24 (FRA 9, FIN 15)
Q6. Sara Conti/Niccolo Macii ITA - 24 (CAN 11, GBR 13)
— Substitutes —
S1. Camille Kovalev/Pavel Kovalev FRA - 20 (FRA 13, JPN 7)
S2. Brooke McIntosh/Benjamin Mimar CAN - 20 (CAN 9, JPN 11)
S3. Anastasiia Metelkina/Daniil Parkman GEO - 20 (GBR 9, FIN 11)

Below are the standings for the 2022-23 Grand Prix of Figure Skating after the 2022 NHK Trophy. With one event left on the Grand Prix before the Final, I take a look at the remaining spots and the skaters’ chances of making it to the Final.

All standings below have tiebreakers already applied. Bold indicates that the skater/team has completed all of their Grand Prix events; Q indicates that the skater/team has mathematically qualified for the Final.

MEN

Top 6 standings after NHK Trophy
Q1. Shoma Uno JPN - 30 (CAN 15, JPN 15)
Q2. Kao Miura JPN - 26 (USA 13, CAN 13)
Q3. Sota Yamamoto JPN - 26 (FRA 13, JPN 13)
Q4. Daniel Grassl ITA - 24 (USA 9, GBR 15)
5. Adam Siao Him Fa FRA - 22 (FRA 15, JPN 7)
6. Junhwan Cha KOR - 22 (USA 11, JPN 11)
—
Still with a chance at the Final
- Ilia Malinin USA - 15 (USA 15, FIN ??)
- Shun Sato JPN - 11 (GBR 11, FIN ??)
- Keegan Messing CAN - 9 (CAN 9, FIN ??)
- Tatsuya Tsuboi JPN - 7 (GBR 7, FIN ??)
- Camden Pulkinen USA - 7 (CAN 7, FIN ??)

Spots remaining: 2
Skaters still mathematically with a chance: 7

HIGH/VERY HIGH: Ilia Malinin

  • Malinin is the most likely of this final group of five to make it to the Final thanks to his win at Skate America; he needs to be fourth or higher to guarantee his spot, if he’s fifth, there are still scenarios in which he makes it but that’s a lower probability scenario

MEDIUM: Adam Siao Him Fa, Shun Sato - it’s likely that the final spot will come down to these two if Malinin gets a spot

  • Even though Siao has 22 points, his standing is greatly bolstered by his GP France win, which breaks a lot of tiebreak scenarios; the way he doesn’t make it is if Malinin and Sato are 1-2 in some order or if Messing wins and Malinin or Sato makes it

  • For Sato, a silver this week will make it pretty likely for him to make it (the only way he doesn’t with silver is if Messing wins and Malinin is third or fourth)

LOW: Keegan Messing

  • For Messing to make it, he would need to be either 1) second in Espoo AND have neither Malinin or Sato make it, or 2) win in Espoo (doesn’t matter how everyone else does)

VERY LOW: Junhwan Cha, Tatsuya Tsuboi, Camden Pulkinen

  • For Tsuboi or Pulkinen to make it to the Final, they will need to win in Espoo AND score enough points to break the tie with Cha AND have only one of Siao-Malinin-Sato-Messing qualify for the Final

PAIRS

Top 6 standings after NHK Trophy
Q1. Riku Miura/Ryuichi Kihara JPN - 30 (CAN 15, JPN 15)
Q2. Alexa Knierim/Brandon Frazier USA - 30 (USA 15, GBR 15)
Q3. Deanna Stellato-Dudek/Maxime Deschamps CAN - 28 (USA 13, FRA 15)
Q4. Emily Chan/Spencer Howe USA - 26 (CAN 13, JPN 13)
Q5. Sara Conti/Niccolo Macii ITA - 24 (CAN 11, GBR 13)
6. Camille Kovalev/Pavel Kovalev FRA - 20 (FRA 13, JPN 7)
—
Still with a chance at the Final
- Rebecca Ghilardi/Filippo Ambrosini ITA - 9 (FRA 9, FIN ??)
- Anastasiia Metelkina/Daniil Parkman GEO - 9 (GBR 9, FIN ??)
- Anna Valesi/Manuel Piazza ITA - 7 (USA 7, FIN ??)
- Daria Danilova/Michel Tsiba NED - 5 (JPN 5, FIN ??)

Spots remaining: 1
Skaters still mathematically with a chance: 5

HIGH/VERY HIGH: Ghilardi/Ambrosini, Metelkina/Parkman - the last spot will likely be between these two pairs

  • Given that they are two of the three favorites here, whoever wins will end up at the Final; even if the third favorite team in Espoo (Alisa Efimova/Ruben Blommaert) win, which ever of them takes silver will make it to the Final

VERY LOW: Kovalev/Kovalev, Valesi/Piazza, Danilova/Tsiba

  • It will take a lot of craziness for any of them to make the Final; Danilova/Tsiba only make it if they win and somehow Ghilardi/Ambrosini and Metelkina/Parkman both finish third or lower; Valesi/Piazza also need to win and have some unexpected standings (though there are super low probability scenarios if they finish in silver); Kovalev/Kovalev have very few and very unrealistic path as well

WOMEN

Top 6 standings after NHK Trophy
Q1. Kaori Sakamoto JPN - 28 (USA 15, JPN 13)
Q2. Yelim Kim KOR - 28 (FRA 13, JPN 15)
Q3. Isabeau Levito USA - 26 (USA 13, GBR 13)
4. Rinka Watanabe JPN - 22 (CAN 15, JPN 7)
5. Rion Sumiyoshi JPN - 22 (FRA 11, JPN 11)
6. Young You KOR - 20 (CAN 11, GBR 9)
—
Still with a chance at the Final
- Mai Mihara JPN - 15 (GBR 15, FIN ??)
- Loena Hendrickx BEL - 15 (FRA 15, FIN ??)
- Anastasiia Gubanova GEO - 11 (GBR 11, FIN ??)
- Rika Kihira JPN - 7 (JPN 7, FIN ??)
- Mana Kawabe JPN - 5 (FRA 5, FIN ??)

Spots remaining: 3
Skaters still mathematically with a chance: 8

VERY HIGH: Mai Mihara, Loena Hendrickx

  • For both of them, fourth or higher in Espoo put them into the Final, and some probable scenarios even if they get fifth; it will take extreme disasters for them to not make the Final

MEDIUM/HIGH: Rinka Watanabe

  • If the favorites do what they do (i.e., if Mihara and Hendrickx go 1-2 in either order), then Watanabe goes into the Final, and that’s because even if Gubanova takes the bronze, Watanabe has the tiebreak; the troubling one would be if Gubanova goes in between Mihara and Hendrickx for silver, in which case all three of them make the Final and edge out Watanabe. There are some lower-probability scenarios that take Watanabe out (for example, Gubanova wins, and Mihara and Hendrickx get 2-3; Kihira wins and somehow gets the tiebreak over Watanabe, and Mihara and Hendrickx get 2-3)

MEDIUM: Anastasiia Gubanova - the real determinant of the last spot (provided that Mihara and Hendrickx make it) will come down to whether Gubanova can get silver or higher

  • As mentioned above, Gubanova’s most realistic scenario to make the Final is if she goes silver, but that would require her to beat either Mihara or Hendrickx, which could happen but isn’t as realistic given what we’ve seen this season so far; bronze will give her incredibly unrealistic scenarios, but still mathematically possible

VERY LOW: Rion Sumiyoshi, Young You, Rika Kihira, Mana Kawabe

  • For Kihira, if this were a “regular” pre-injury season, this would actually be a realistic scenario - for her to get to the Final, she would have to win in Espoo and get the tiebreak over Watanabe; but given that she will have lower difficulty in her programs, this isn’t at all likely to happen

  • For Sumiyoshi, You, and Kawabe, it would basically require the likes of Mihara, Hendrickx, and Gubanova to completely implode for them to get into the Final

DANCE

Top 6 standings after NHK Trophy
Q1. Charlene Guignard/Marco Fabbri ITA - 30 (FRA 15, GBR 15)
Q2. Laurence Fournier Beaudry/Nikolaj Sorensen CAN - 28 (FRA 13, JPN 15)
Q3. Madison Chock/Evan Bates USA - 28 (USA 15, JPN 13)
Q4. Lilah Fear/Lewis Gibson GBR - 26 (CAN 13, GBR 13)
5. Marjorie Lajoie/Zachary Lagha CAN - 22 (CAN 11, GBR 11)
6. Caroline Green/Michael Parsons USA - 20 (CAN 9, JPN 11)
—
Still with a chance at the Final
- Piper Gilles/Paul Poirier CAN - 15 (CAN 15, FIN ??)
- Kaitlin Hawayek/Jean-Luc Baker USA - 13 (USA 13, FIN ??)
- Christina Carreira/Anthony Ponomarenko USA - 9 (GBR 9, FIN ??)
- Natalie Taschlerova/Filip Taschler CZE - 7 (GBR 7, FIN ??)

Spots remaining: 2
Skaters still mathematically with a chance: 6

VERY HIGH: Gilles/Poirier, Hawayek/Baker

  • Just based on numbers alone and how ice dance events usually go, it’s pretty certain that it’ll be these two teams going into the Final and taking the last two spots; Gilles/Poirier make it if they get on the podium (with a number of possible scenarios if they get fourth) and Hawayek/Baker make it if they get on the podium (with fewer possible scenarios if they get fourth)

VERY LOW: Lajoie/Lagha, Green/Parsons, Carreira/Ponomarenko, Taschlerova/Taschler

  • Unless Gilles/Poirier or Hawayek/Baker fall like 6 times, the chances for any of these teams for the Final are pretty much nil; should that happen, however, Carreira/Ponomarenko is most likely to get that last spot because of how things would have to shake out for those unrealistic scenarios to occur