2015 Grand Prix Series: Standings after five events and qualifier analysis

We are five events down in the Grand Prix Series, and now that the results of the midway-cancelled Trophee Eric Bompard and the subsequent amendment to the Grand Prix Final qualification rules have been announced, we can take a look who's left to fight for the final spots. Note: names with (Q) denote skaters that have qualified.

MEN Link to full standings
(Q)1. Javier Fernandez ESP - 30 (CHN 15, RUS 15)
(Q)2. Shoma Uno JPN - 28 (USA 13, FRA 15)
(Q)3. Patrick Chan CAN - 22 (CAN 15, FRA 7)
4. Daisuke Murakami JPN - 22 (CAN 11, FRA 11)
5. Han Yan CHN - 20 (USA 9, CHN 11)
6. Max Aaron USA - 19 (USA 15, FRA 4)
Skaters still with a realistic chance to qualify
10. Boyang Jin CHN - 13 (CHN 13, JPN ??)
11. Maxim Kovtun RUS - 13 (FRA 13, JPN ??)
12. Yuzuru Hanyu JPN - 13 (CAN 13, JPN ??)
18. Grant Hochstein USA - 9 (CHN 9, JPN ??)
19. Konstantin Menshov RUS - 7 (USA 7, JPN ??)

Analysis: Because of Patrick Chan's win at Skate Canada, he won the first tiebreak (best placement) over Daisuke Murakami and will win the the tiebreak over anyone else who scores 22 points and doesn't win NHK Trophy. After looking at all the permutations of final outcomes, Chan has mathematically qualified for the Final.

Murakami has a fairly solid chance of making it, possibly via the new 7th-qualifier rule given only to Bompard competitors. Three scenarios will take him out - 1) Jin/Kovtun/Hanyu/Hochstein are top 4 at NHK and Hochstein finishes second or above, 2) Jin/Kovtun/Hanyu/Menshov are top 4 at NHK and Menshov wins, 3) Menshov wins, Hochstein is second, and two of Jin/Kovtun/Hanyu are third and fourth. 

LADIES Link to full standings
(Q)1. Gracie Gold USA - 28 (USA 13, FRA 15)
(Q)2. Evgenia Medvedeva RUS - 28 (USA 15, RUS 13)
(Q)3. Elena Radionova RUS - 26 (CHN 11, RUS 15)
4. Rika Hongo JPN - 20 (CHN 13, RUS 7)
5. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva RUS - 20 (CAN 13, FRA 7)
6. Julia Lipnitskaia RUS - 18 (USA 5, FRA 13)
Skaters still with a realistic chance to qualify
8. Mao Asada JPN - 15 (CHN 15, JPN ??)
9. Ashley Wagner USA - 15 (CAN 15, JPN ??)
17. Satoko Miyahara JPN - 11 (USA 11, JPN ??)
18. Anna Pogorilaya RUS - 9 (CHN 9, JPN ??)

Analysis: The bad news for Elizaveta Tuktamysheva is that Rika Hongo beat her in the second tiebreak (best combined short program scores). Tuktamysheva needs to both take advantage of the 7th-qualifier rule and have two skaters max overtake her in the standings. With Asada, Wagner, and Miyahara in the mix, that's unlikely but not impossible.

The good news is that it is still possible, thanks to her silver at Skate Canada. Take a scenario in which Asada and Wagner are top two in either order, Pogorilaya third, and Miyahara fourth - Tuktamysheva would be overtaken by Asada and Wagner but will win the first tiebreak (best placement). But if the podium is Asada, Wagner, and Miyahara in any order, she will be out, as will Hongo, who would end up seventh and unable to take advantage of the 7th-qualifier rule because she was not at Bompard.

PAIRS Link to full standings
(Q)1. Yuko Kavaguti/Alexander Smirnov RUS - 28 (CHN 15, RUS 13)
(Q)2. Wenjing Sui/Cong Han CHN - 28 (USA 15, CHN 13)
(Q)3. Ksenia Stolbova/Fedor Klimov RUS - 24 (USA 9, RUS 15)
4. Julianne Seguin/Charlie Bilodeau CAN - 22 (USA 11, FRA 11)
5. Cheng Peng/Hao Zhang CHN - 20 (FRA 9, RUS 11)
6. Xuehan Wang/Lei Wang CHN - 16 (USA 7, CHN 9)
Pairs still with a realistic chance to qualify
9. Meagan Duhamel/Eric Radford CAN - 15 (CAN 15, JPN ??)
12. Alexa Scimeca/Chris Knierim USA - 13 (USA 13, JPN ??)
13. Vanessa James/Morgan Cipres FRA - 13 (FRA 13, JPN ??)
15. Xiaoyu Yu/Yang Jin CHN - 11 (CHN 11, JPN ??)

Analysis: Even with a fourth at Skate America, Ksenia Stolbova/Fedor Klimov are in the Final, as their Rostelecom win means that there is no scenario where they would be overtaken by more than three pairs. Julianne Seguin/Charlie Bilodeau have an outside shot at qualifying for the Final, and it would likely be via the 7th-qualifier rule. But because their first tiebreak is a third place, Duhamel/Radford, Scimeca/Knierim, and James/Cipres can overtake them with anything fourth or higher, and Yu/Jin can overtake them with the 2nd tiebreak if they are third or if they are second or higher.

DANCE Link to full standings
(Q)1. Kaitlyn Weaver/Andrew Poje CAN - 30 (CAN 15, RUS 15)
(Q)2. Madison Chock/Evan Bates USA - 28 (USA 15, CHN 13)
(Q)3. Anna Cappellini/Luca Lanotte ITA - 28 (CHN 15, RUS 13)
4. Victoria Sinitsina/Nikita Katsalapov RUS - 24 (USA 13, RUS 11)
5. Piper Gilles/Paul Poirier CAN - 24 (USA 11, FRA 13)
6. Elena Ilinykh/Ruslan Zhiganshin RUS - 18 (CHN 11, RUS 7)
Teams still with a realistic chance to qualify
8. Madison Hubbell/Zachary Donohue USA - 15 (FRA 15, JPN ??)
9. Maia Shibutani/Alex Shibutani USA - 13 (CAN 13, JPN ??)
10. Ekaterina Bobrova/Dmitri Soloviev RUS - 11 (CAN 11, JPN ??)
12. Alexandra Stepanova/Ivan Bukin RUS - 11 (FRA 11, JPN ??)

Analysis: Americans Madison Hubbell/Zachary Donohue is almost a lock for their first Final after their short dance win at Trophee Eric Bompard. They can finish as low as fourth and still be guaranteed a spot because they would win almost any 24-point first tiebreak.* Piper Gilles/Paul Poirier are in the same predicament as Tuktamysheva, where they are fifth after losing their short dance tiebreak and would only qualify if, at most, two teams overtake them. It's possible, though - any scenario where Hubbell/Donohue and Maia Shibutani/Alex Shibutani finish 1-2 will put them in the Final via the 7th-qualifier rule.

*The only one they could lose is in the very, very, very outside scenario where they finish fourth and Penny Coomes/Nicholas Buckland win NHK and beat Hubbell/Donohue in overall short program score, the chances of which I put at 0.000023%.