2021 Nebelhorn Trophy: Olympic qualification preview

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Just under five months left until the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing, and it’s that time of the season when all eyes focus on the Nebelhorn Trophy and the second (and last) Olympic qualification event. Last season’s World Championships allotted the majority of the Olympic spots, leaving 20 spots among the four disciplines to be grabbed this week in Oberstdorf, Germany.

Because of the significance of the event - many skaters are trying to qualify their countries’ sole Olympic spot in their discipline - Nebelhorn tends to bring out some of the best skating from skaters you may not be as familiar with. And because of the change in rules for qualification this year - some countries have to qualify an extra spot that they earned at Worlds - you will also see some big names at the even that may not have been here had the rules not changed.

I’ve compiled the stats and done the calculations - and this preview will lay out the skaters who look to be pretty comfortable in earning the spots the came for, and the potential nailbiters that are likely to happen on the bubble. It’ll be an exciting week.

2021 Nebelhorn Trophy preview
Full entrants list | Official hashtag: #NebelhornTrophy2021

*The numbers in parenthesis indicate either the highest score the skater(s) received in a competition this season, their ISU personal best, or another score otherwise indicated

Women - 6 spots available / 33 countries in play

Likely to qualify: POL, SUI, USA

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Alysa Liu USA (219.24 / Lombardia) has competed twice so far early in this season and has shown herself to be more than ready for the challenge of qualifying the third women’s spot for the US. She is the clear favorite for gold at Nebelhorn.

Ekaterina Kurakova POL (187.65 / Lombardia) and Alexia Paganini SUI (171.48 / Lombardia) are seasoned competitors who have lots of international cred. Kurakova has had her inconsistencies in the past but looked as strong as she ever has at Lombardia Trophy two weeks ago. Paganini finished 0.49 behind 24th at Worlds in the short last year and missed out on the Olympic spot there, and will be looking for redemption here - she knows what it’s like to qualify a spot, after finishing third at Nebelhorn four years ago.

Likely to contend for spots: AUS, AUT, BLR, CYP, FRA, HUN, ITA, SVK

Four years ago, the last woman to qualify for a spot scored 151.08. I expect the last woman to qualify to be somewhere in the 165-170 range this year. Based on the scores that we’ve seen so far this season, Lara Naki Gutmann ITA (166.98 / Lombardia), Sophia Schaller AUT (159.08 / Lombardia), Lea Serna FRA (156.66 / Lombardia), Emilea Zingas CYP (154.38 / Cranberry) are in the group with a shot at getting one of those posts. If Gutmann avoids another disaster in the short like she had at Lombardia, she should be the most likely out of this group.

Then you have the skaters who have shown strong skating in the past who are in this group as well. Kailani Craine AUS (142.10 / Cranberry) won this event four years ago on her way to PyeongChang, but will need to conjure up some of the magic from four years ago given her recent performance at Cranberry Cup. Viktoriia Safonova BLR (PB 192.49), Nicole Rajicova SVK (PB 169.03), and Julia Lang HUN (PB 166.55) can all skate and score well, but we have not seen them compete yet this season. Rajicova, in particular, has had a tough time recovering from injury over the past couple of seasons.

Given her win at Autumn Classic over the weekend, there is a case for Marilena Kitromilis to be at Nebelhorn to qualify for Cyprus. As of Monday, Zingas is still listed as the Cypriot at Nebelhorn.

A wrinkle to add to these qualifications is that the Swedish federation may be requiring their athletes to achieve a score this season that would put them in the top 8 at last year’s Worlds. It may be the case that Sweden gives up its spot if one of its skaters doesn’t achieve that this season. In any case of a federation giving up a spot, that spot would go to the country that finishes in the next order of qualification at Nebelhorn.

Men - 7 spots available / 26 countries in play

Likely to qualify: CAN, FRA, RUS, USA

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Four figure skating powerhouses will be going for an additional spot over the spots that they qualified at Worlds in Stockholm. Vincent Zhou USA (288.26 / Cranberry) looks to be the clear favorite for the event, and will be trying to make up for the disappointment at Worlds that led him to have to qualify this third spot for the US to begin with. Adam Siao Him Fa FRA (237.39 / Lombardia) has looked very good early this season and should be smoothly in for France’s second spot.

The two who look likely but are somewhat wildcards are Roman Sadovsky CAN (PB 247.50) and Mark Kondratiuk RUS (260.31 / 2021 Russian Nationals). They both got the Nebelhorn spots based on their performances at their respective countries’ test skates, and in Kondratiuk’s case, he’s a virtual unknown internationally.

Likely to contend for spots: AUT, ARM, AUS, AZE, GER, GBR, KOR, MON, PHI, TUR

The remainder of the men’s spots will likely be very open to a number of countries, and it will really depend on how cleanly each skater goes. In this group, we have skaters who have proven themselves in the past - Brendan Kerry AUS (PB 224.44), Vladimir Litvintsev AZE (218.80 / Lombardia), and Paul Fentz GER (PB 230.01); and some who are in some ways wild cards, like Sihyeong Lee KOR (227.63 / 2021 Korean Nationals), who hasn’t competed internationally since taking 11th at 2020 Junior Worlds.

Four years ago, the last person to qualify at Nebelhorn scored 208.76 (though Sweden also gave up their spot that year as well, giving a spot to the next country on the bubble). I expect that score for the final spot to be in the 210s this year, before anything with the Swedish federation gets decided.

Pairs - 3 spots available / 14 countries in play

Likely to qualify: ESP

I wouldn’t have said this a couple weeks ago, but Laura Barquero/Marco Zandron ESP (184.94 / Lombardia) were incredibly impressive at Lombardia Trophy two weeks ago. If they are even close to how they looked there, they are shoo-ins. It’s not just the elements - they are just a really good pair team.

Likely to contend for spots: AUS, CHN, CRO, GBR, GEO, ISR

In this contender group for the other two spots, assuming Spain gets the third, are a bunch of countries with pairs who could make a splash. There are pairs relatively new to the senior circuit - Yuchen Wang/Yihang Huang CHN (175.40 / 2020 Cup of China), Karina Safina/Luka Berulava GEO (168.26 / 2021 JGP Slovakia), and Anastasia Golubeva/Hektor Giotopoulous Moore AUS (158.68 / 2021 JGP Russia); and pairs with some history - Lana Petranovic/Antonion Souza Kordeiru CRO (PB 153.99), Zoe Jones/Christopher Boyadji GBR (PB 153.70), Hailey Kops/Evgeni Krasnopolski ISR (165.85 / John Nicks).

In the case of Jones/Boyadji, they will be sentimental favorites as they try to qualify for their first Olympics after missing it four years ago. And Krasnopolski, with his seventh partner, tries for his third Olympics.

Dance - 4 spots available / 17 countries in play

Likely to contend for spots: ARM, AUS, CZE, FIN, GEO, KOR

Nothing is really certain in the world of ice dance among this group of teams who are very evenly matched and could qualify or not qualify just based on a couple of levels won or lost. Of this group, 2020 World junior silver medalists Maria Kazakova/Georgy Reviya GEO (PB 176.19) are probably the most likely to leave with a spot and are the slight favorites to win this event. But based on early season events - from the Lake Placid Ice Dance Championships to Lombardia Trophy to US International Classic, the rest of those spots are a toss-up among these teams.

Team - some more details for the skating nerds

Although the qualifications for the Team Event don’t conclude until after the Grand Prix Final happens this season, the results from Nebelhorn Trophy could determine whether a country is even in the running to qualify a Team Event spot. In order to be eligible, a country must have already qualified skaters in at least three of the disciplines to the Olympics. For example, Austria has currently qualified in women and pairs, so if they qualify a men’s spot at Nebelhorn, they will become eligible to qualify for the Team Event.