Coming into the All-Japan Championships, there are two skaters who have all but wrapped up their spots on the Olympic team. Outside of Yuma Kagiyama and Shun Sato, who have distinguished themselves with their brilliant seasons so far, the fight for the third spot looks to be between Kao Miura and Kazuki Tomono. They had a close matchup on the Grand Prix, when Miura prevailed, but given how close it has been this season in top scores and criteria, this final matchup should be the decider.
Olympic selection outlook
Skaters who are already in consideration for the Olympic team based on the selection criteria: Yuma Kagiyama, Shun Sato, Kao Miura, Kazuki Tomono
Next up if one or more of the above are selected: Sota Yamamoto (world standing), Tatsuya Tsuboi (JSF’s international formula)
Additional skaters will be added to team consideration if they finish on the podium
Japan Nationals predictions
Official hashtag: #全日本フィギュア
GOLD Yuma Kagiyama 鍵山優真 - Much like Kaori Sakamoto, Kagiyama has been the leading man for the Japanese team for the past few years. Since Shoma Uno retired, it’s been Kagiyama who has taken up the mantle, though it’s not always been the smoothest at the top for him. This event should be a coronation for him on his way to the Olympics as a medal contender, and it will be important for him to use this opportunity to continue to keep his foot on the gas pedal. Two clean skates will do him a lot of good here.
SILVER Shun Sato 佐藤駿 - The most consistent of the Japanese men this season, Sato has more than earned his spot on the Olympic team so far this season. Given how locked in he has been this season, another strong showing for him here is likely, and this is his push toward being a potential podium contender in Milano.
BRONZE Rio Nakata 中田璃士 - Silver at the Junior Grand Prix Final was a disappointment for Nakata, who has had a very strong season and expected himself to take back that title this year. And given his reaction in Nagoya, he's got a fire lit under him, and he comes in with something to prove. He is the reigning silver medalist from last year and is not age-eligible for the Olympics.
4. Kazuki Tomono 友野一希 - Tomono has been right on the edge so many times with qualification, and he's had to take the alternate role more than once. This is as good of a look as he's ever had to make the team outright, and he's done plenty to prove that he can take that spot—but he has yet to put it all together at one event. Two strong programs will be absolutely necessary for Tomono. It's now or never.
5. Kao Miura 三浦佳生 - It has been a struggle this season for Miura, but his standing for the Olympic team is a combination of what he did last season and also his surge during the Grand Prix after a very subpar early season. Thanks to his performance at Skate Canada, he put himself back into the conversation. But how erratic he is this week will determine it all; the stage is set.
6. Sota Yamamoto 山本草太 - Yamamoto has an outside shot at the team here, but this season has been difficult for him as he's struggled through injury. For him to be in strong consideration for the team, he will have to have two skates of his life and finish on the podium.
7. Nozomu Yoshioka 吉岡希 - It has been a quiet season for Yoshioka internationally, partly because he finished 22nd here last season and a poor showing at Summer Cup at the beginning of this season. But the former World junior bronze medalist skated well at both regionals and sectionals and looks to have regained his consistency ahead of Nationals.
8. Tatsuya Tsuboi 壷井達也 - The surprise bronze medalist last year, Tsuboi has had a lot of trouble with consistency this season as he looks to get back onto the end-of-season Japanese teams. He made it to Worlds last year, and has had some solid but not spectacular skates this season—both of which has kept him in contention for the Olympic team.
9. Taiga Nishino 西野太翔 - The Japanese junior silver medalist was disappointed with his fifth place showing at the Junior Grand Prix Final and will look to rebound from that skate this week.
10. Sena Miyake 三宅星南 - Sixth at Nationals last year, Miyake is a crowd favorite. He was second at Eastern Sectionals and has been in the top ten at nationals four of the past five years.