The 2026 Winter Olympics is less than five months away, and this week, figure skating will have its final qualification event for countries to earn spots for their athletes in Milano Cortina. Skate to Milano—or as skating fans have dubbed it, “Chinese Nebelhorn,” because Nebelhorn Trophy has been a staple of Olympic qualifying over the past two decades—will take place in Beijing.
What’s at stake and how it works
Each country eligible to qualify one (or one more) spot by discipline will have one entry for the specific discipline(s). For a quick refresher, take a look at my explanation of rules from last season and the spots that have already been qualified as a result of last year’s Worlds.
There are 5 spots remaining for men, 5 spots remaining for women, 3 spots remaining for pairs, and 4 spots remaining for dance. In addition to that, countries are also trying to put themselves in the running for the Team Event; only countries that have qualified spots in at least 3 of the 4 disciplines will be eligible for the Team Event (which is then determined through a combination of results of those countries’ athletes over the past two seasons).
Countries with athletes competing at Skate to Milano will have a chance to qualify ONE spot per discipline they are entered in, and spots will be determined by final standings (e.g., the top five finishers for the men’s event will qualify their countries one spot). Country alternates for each discipline will be ranked according to the final standings as well (e.g., the sixth place finisher for the men’s event will give his country the first alternate spot for the men’s event).
This preview will cover each discipline and look at those who are most likely to grab a spot and those who are going to be fighting for those remaining spots.
Skate to Milano / Chinese Nebelhorn preview
Official hashtag: #SkateToMilano / unofficial hashtag: #ChineseNebelhorn
Full entrants and schedule
MEN (5 spots)
Anyone who can get in the 220+ mark here will likely have a very good shot at getting a top five finish. Anything in the 210s may get them there, and anything in the 200s could be on the bubble. But as we know, men will do the menning things, and because there are so many skaters who are evenly matched, it’ll be a matter of 1) who can put themselves in contention early with a good short, and 2) who can make the fewest mistakes in the free.
Favored to earn a spot: Petr Gumennik AIN
Because of Russia’s ban from ISU competition starting in March 2022, Gumennik will be in his first international competition in four years. But during that time, he has been in the top four at Russian Nationals and finished last season with a win at the Russian Cup Final.
Will be competitive for top five: Francois Pitot FRA, Hyungyeom Kim KOR, Kyrylo Marsak UKR, Georgii Reshtenko CZE, Donovan Carrillo MEX, Tamir Kuperman ISR
I’ve put six guys in this category for four spots, so yes, it’s kind of anyone’s game here. Within those seven, I would slightly favor Francois Pitot and Hyungyeom Kim, who both earned their spots at their countries’ domestic event earlier in the season—Pitot beat out Luc Economides and others at French Masters, and Kim beat out Jaekeun Lee and others at the Korean qualifier in July. Kyrylo Marsak is there as well, as he is coming off one of his best competitions last weekend at Lombardia Trophy with a 223.
The other three will be a sink-or-swim based on Tamir Kuperman battled two teammates for this spot, and earned it very emphatically with a 234 at Mid-Atlantics, but he has shown himself to be up and down this season. Georgii Reshtenko has always been a talent, and if he can land the stuff when it matters, he will be in that top five. Donovan Carrillo earned a 208 at Cranberry Cup, which can put him into contention as well, and we’ve seen stronger scores from him in the past.
Potential dark horses: Genrikh Gartung GER, Semen Daniliants ARM, Edward Appleby GBR, Davide Lewton Brain MON
PAIRS (3 spots)
For me, this is six pairs for three spots. But there is a twist here—it is altogether possible that a fourth spot opens up because Uzbekistan may open up the spot that they already had earned, given their sole pair has withdrawn from the Grand Prix series and have been nowhere in sight (with no official news). So it’s not just the top three that is important here, but the first alternate spot (and even second alternate spot) may be very coveted. Look for 180+ to be a score that will very likely be top three, anything in the 170s to have a good shot, and 160s to be on the bubble.
Favored to earn a spot: Nagaoka/Moriguchi JPN, Zhang/Huang CHN
In early season events, it’s been Yuna Nagaoka/Sumitada Moriguchi who has impressed the most out of any pair here. They had the disappointment of finishing outside the free skate at Worlds, and they will be very much favored to win this event given how well they skated at Kinoshita Cup. Jiaxuan Zhang/Yihang Huang are last year’s Junior Grand Prix Final champions and had an impressive win at Asian Trophy with a 190.
Will be competitive for top three: Akopova/Rakhmanin ARM, Shin/Nagy USA, Kovalev/Kovalev FRA, Valesi/Bidar CZE
Every point counts here among these pairs—three of the four have all competed internationally this season and put down something in the 165-175 range (K/K had a 178 at French Masters, a domestic event). It’s tough to reinforce just how close the fight for the top three will be here. Clean skating and high levels will be key.
DANCE (4 spots)
Like pairs, there may be another spot opening up—Finland currently has two spots but may only be able to use one because of citizenship reasons. But that has yet to be resolved, so four spots it is for now. It’s going to be one team and then a whole bunch of others fighting for the remaining spots. 180+ will likely ease you into the top 4, 170s will be where the battle is, and 165-170 will probably be on the bubble.
Favored to earn a spot: Reed/Ambrulevicius LTU, Harris/Chan AUS
Allison Reed/Saulius Ambrulevicius were supposed to have been a shoo-in for a spot at last year’s Worlds, but a fall in their rhythm dance took them completely out of the free dance. They are, by far, the strongest team in this field and should win the event. Holly Harris/Jason Chan missed qualifying a spot for Australia by one placement at Worlds. They had their strongest career season last year and should also grab one of those four spots.
Will (probably?) be competitive for top four: Val/Kazimov ESP, Ignateva/Szemko HUN, Reitan/Majorov SWE, Wang/Liu CHN, Yoshida/Morita JPN, Soucisse/Firus IRL
Put this in the who-the-heck-knows category because we are looking at at least six teams with the potential to be in those last two spots (assuming R/A and H/C go through), and all six of these teams have shown 170s in international competition before. It’s really a matter of clean skating here, which probably is even more important than the bigger levels.
WOMEN (5 spots)
Perhaps more than any other discipline, the women will have a number of skaters who are very highly favored to get into those qualifications spots. So that leaves a couple spots and a very competitive battle for them. You’re really looking at 160+ as the magic number—the top three will easily clear it, but getting there for the others will be key. 150s probably put you on the bubble.
Favored to earn a spot: Adeliia Petrosian AIN, Loena Hendrickx BEL, Anastasiia Gubanova GEO
This is one of those where you look at the names and you’re like, why are they here?? Well, Adeliia Petrosian makes her international senior debut because of Russia’s ban from international competition to earn a neutral athlete spot for herself. Loena Hendrickx was injured most of last season and is trying to get the second Belgian spot that Nina Pinzarrone’s placement at Worlds allowed for. Anastasiia Gubanova had a complete disaster at Worlds in the short and didn’t qualify for the free skate. Barring disasters, they should sail through this event.
Will be competitive for top five: Viktoriia Safonova AIN, Ruiyang Zhang CHN, Josefin Taljegard SWE, Stefania Yakovleva CYP
Viktoriia Safonova should be able to get through this event fairly easily, but for the past three seasons, she’s only competed in one competition each year, which is Belarus’ Nationals—the x factor here is whether she is ready for international competition.
For the rest of them, it could be such a toss-up. Ruiyang Zhang, Josefin Taljegard, and Stefania Yakovleva probably have the highest scoring potential out of all of them—Zhang has the advantage of a fairly solid triple-triple, which helps tremendously, especially in the short. Yakovleva is coming off a career-est competition at Robin Cousins Cup in August, where she was in the 170s. Fan-favorite Taljegard needs to keep those underrotations under control and minimize the GOE deductions.
Potential dark horses: Vanesa Selemkova SVK, Mia Risa Gomez NOR, Niki Wories NED