We’ve been anticipating this women’s event at the 2026 Winter Olympics for the entire season, and it will be the final figure skating event of the Games. But if the skating so far in Milan have been any indication, unexpected mistakes have been happening, and you never know what this competition will bring. Over the past few seasons, it’s been Japan vs US in the women’s event, but there is the addition of Adeliia Petrosian here, who is only in her second international competition as a senior but could shake up the standings. What other surprises will these Olympics bring us?
Winter Olympics predictions
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GOLD Kaori Sakamoto JPN - It has been four years since Sakamoto’s triumphant bronze in Beijing—it was a position that she had hoped for but certainly thrilled to actually get. And since then, she’s been the one to beat for the entire Olympic cycle. It’s been a long Olympics for her; she was one of the four women who had to deliver two programs for the Team Event (in addition to Gubanova, Gutmann, and Schizas). But she’s been through this before with the Team Event, so having that experience should serve her well in her quest to become the Olympic champion. She will need to be perfect, and if there’s anyone who can live under that pressure, it’s Kaori Sakamoto.
SILVER Ami Nakai JPN - She’s been the surprise of the season, and she has continued to be impressive coming into her first Olympics. Coming off the silver at Four Continents, it will be important for her to not only deliver on her great program presentation, but also for her to hit that triple axel—twice—because she absolutely has the opportunity to be the upset champion here if she can go clean in both programs.
BRONZE Amber Glenn USA - Speaking of the potential to be the upset champion, Glenn has been the one who prevailed in this kind of scenario before—and it was the Grand Prix Final in 2024 that really put her on the map. She went into last year’s World Championships with a lot of expectations and finished fifth. But she comes in a bit more under the radar, which could very well be an advantage for her at these Olympics. Like Nakai, the triple axel is crucial.
4. Alysa Liu USA - The World champion brings last year’s programs to the Olympics after some hits and misses this season with her two new programs. The short program was completely out of her control, and the free skate just never clicked correctly. So she comes with two comfortable programs that she will need to be squeaky clean on in order to find herself on the podium. But last year’s Worlds should teach us that when she really turns it on, she can knock it out of the park.
5. Mone Chiba JPN - Has the World bronze medalist gotten her edge jump jitters under control? The opening of her free skate has been a minefield for her ever since the Grand Prix Final, and in practices, she continues to drill the loop and sal. Even if it’s going well, it’s still in her head, so we will see how that translates here.
6. Adeliia Petrosian AIN - The complete x-factor is Petrosian, who qualified her spot to the Olympics in September but has continued to be out of international competition because of the ban on Russia by the ISU. There are so many things in play here—Petrosian’s relative inexperience with huge international pressure, the fact that this is the Olympic Games, and her injuries throughout the season that has led her to change up her program content. She does look like she is bringing the quad toe to the free skate, and if she can be clean here, that makes a huge difference.
7. Isabeau Levito USA - Perhaps very under the radar, Levito has been good this season but she hasn’t really made a splash yet. The short program will be especially important for her because she needs to stay in contention to not have to somehow dig herself out of a hole, because of the top skaters here, her free skate just might not have that umph to pull her up the standings.
8. Niina Petrokina EST - The new European champion is here to prove that she can really make it on the biggest stage. She’s underperformed at Worlds when it mattered most, and she comes into Milano having just repeated as European champion in a big way. The comparison of her skating with the rest of these top contenders will be of interest, because she’s not quite as strong overall but she’s got the jumps to compete.
9. Anastasiia Gubanova GEO - Her heroics in the Team Event free skate gave her the biggest momentum coming into the individual event. If she can do that again and combine that with a better short program, she’s got top six potential.
10. Lara Naki Gutmann ITA - It was the other way around (vs Gubanova) for Gutmann, who had a career-best short program in the Team Event and then made mistakes in the free skate. She’s got some of the most creative programs in this field, and she will skate in front of an adoring home audience.
Top 11-24
11. Jia Shin KOR
12. Sofia Samodelkina KAZ
13. Loena Hendrickx BEL
14. Madeline Schizas
15. Haein Lee KOR
16. Viktoriia Safonova AIN
17. Julia Sauter ROU
18. Kimmy Repond SUI
19. Nina Pinzarrone BEL
20. Ruiyang Zhang CHN
21. Olga Mikutina AUT
22. Iida Karhunen FIN
23. Lorine Schild FRA
24. Livia Kaiser SUI