As has been the case for the first three instances of the Olympic figure skating Team Event, all-around teams are of utmost importance this week at the 2026 Winter Olympics in Milano Cortina. Coming into these Olympics, there are two very clear frontrunners for gold—Team Japan and Team United States have been dominant in three of the four disciplines, and they balance each other in the one discipline they aren’t as strong in. How it all pans out this week will depend highly on both the consistency of their entrants and how they decide to split out their events.
See Part 1 of the preview for a primer on Team Event rules and strategy
Winter Olympics Team Event predictions
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GOLD Team United States - In the fight for gold, Team United States brings in three of the four reigning World champions, which is a big deal when you are trying to be dominant. There are two potential liabilities for the Americans: 1) the volatility of pairs and how consistent the potential of an Ellie Kam/Danny O’Shea or Emily Chan/Spencer Howe entry is (the likelihood is that it will be the stronger and higher-scoring Kam/O’Shea), and 2) the decision to sit Ilia Malinin out for the free skate. The US’s chances of gold increases dramatically with Malinin doing both programs, particularly given that neither Andrew Torgashev nor Maxim Naumov have been particularly reliable in international competition. The entrance of Laurence Fournier Beaudry/Guillaume Cizeron for Team France also throws a wrench in for the Americans, as Madison Chock/Evan Bates are no longer as strong of favorites to win the rhythm dance.
SILVER Team Japan - Complementing the Americans’ relative weak point in pairs is Team Japan’s relative weak point in ice dance. Unlike the US pair, though, who actually have the potential to be in the top 4 or 5 in the short program, Utana Yoshida/Masaya Morita are very likely going to be in the 7th to 9th places. And that is the spot that gives Japan a lower likelihood of winning the title. For them to be most comfortable, they will want to rely on Kaori Sakamoto and Riku Miura/Ryuichi Kihara to win both segments, which crawls back point-by-point that disadvantage. Again, the men’s free skate and the US strategy there will play a huge factor.
BRONZE Team Georgia - Georgia has really changed the game here in their second appearance in the Olympic Team Event. Unlike the American and Japanese teams, Georgia brings a very even roster—most of them are not going to straight out win events, but they will have a good chance of placing in the top half. The relative weak link of Diana Davis/Gleb Smolkin in ice dance will be made up by Anastasiia Metelkina/Luka Berulava, who actually do have a chance at winning either segment. And if Metelkina/Berulava do end up beating Miura/Kihara, it would go in favor of the Americans’ chances of winning the title.
4. Team Italy - A few months ago, the home team was the one that many had pegged as the favorite for the bronze medal. But the past few competitions have put question marks on the potential of the men’s entry (or entries?), since Daniel Grassl has gotten to be more inconsistent than he was during the Grand Prix Series. And Sara Conti’s knee injury that took her and Niccolo Macii out of Europeans means that they went from having the potential to win their segments to being a big x-factor, particularly in the free skate, where the sore knee is most untested. Charlene Guignard/Marco Fabbri’s rise after uncharacteristically low scores early in the season tempers a bit of that volatility, but their road to bronze is tougher than first imagined.
Deanna Stellato/Maxime Deschamps out of the Team Event - Stellato was injured during training at home. Her condition will be monitored #MilanoCortina2026
— Jackie Wong (@rockerskating) February 2, 2026
5. Team Canada - Just off the podium (and still controversially so) four years ago, Canada is very much the underdog for the podium. And they will absolutely need to skate to their potential in order to prevent a Team France or a Team China from sneaking into the top five. Stephen Gogolev and Madeline Schizas, in particular, will need to be clean and find themselves in the top 5 or 6 range to really keep them comfortably in the top five. And without Deanna Stellato/Maxime Deschamps here, Lia Pereira/Trennt Michaud are stepping in to skate both programs (they were originally skating in the free skate only). Their short program has been their strength this season, and it will be crucial for them to continue that here.
6. Team France
7. Team China
8. Team South Korea
9. Team Great Britain
10. Team Poland
A top five with Team France in the mix then changes the game for that fight for gold if Fournier Beaudry/Cizeron end up also competing in the free dance. That said, given how close the individual ice dance event is to the Team Event, the chances that they sub in Evgeniia Lopareva/Geoffrey Brissaud for the free dance is very much there. But if they do sub in Lopareva/Brissaud, having Camille Kovalev/Pavel Kovalev in the free skate instead of Pereira/Michaud gives an advantage to Team USA.
So many little changes and placement shifts can affect the final outcomes here for these teams. One thing is for sure, having a very strong short program segment to start the Team Event will be absolutely crucial, as the free skate segment provides less room to maneuver given the point system, especially if you are trying to dig out of a deficit.