Everything in the ice dance world seems to be converging to five teams going for the three medals this week at the 2026 Winter Olympics. And to top that off, we got a bit of information coming into the individual event after all five of these teams competed in the rhythm dance for the Team Event. Ice dance does operate a lot on trends and momentum, so what happened in the Team Event could say a lot about what will happen just a few days later in the individual event. The fight for the title, however, looks to be a close one between two of those five teams.
Winter Olympics predictions
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GOLD Madison Chock/Evan Bates USA - The Team Event really gave us a glimpse into how the matchup between them and Fournier Beaudry/Cizeron might shape up. It was Chock/Bates who prevailed in the rhythm dance by just over a point, including higher component scores. We got the first matchup between the two teams at the Grand Prix Final, but it was inconclusive because of FB/C’s fluke fall in the free dance—we didn’t really know what two clean versions of these teams could do. But now we have two rhythm dance data points, both of which resulted in a Chock/Bates win. It will absolutely be a close one.
SILVER Laurence Fournier Beaudry/Guillaume Cizeron FRA - The chances of Fournier Beaudry/Cizeron winning this whole thing are still high, and with the complexity of ice dance being as high as it is, one little thing could change everything. Of the teams here, they are the strongest in their basics, but their rhythm dance in the Team Event didn’t showcase their attack as much as it should have. Their biggest liability will actually be that they skate very early in the rhythm dance event, which may put a damper on their scores.
BRONZE Piper Gilles/Paul Poirier CAN - The fight for bronze looks to be between Gilles/Poirier and Fear/Gibson, and in the Team Event, it was Fear/Gibson who took that over Gilles/Poirier—but the perhaps tell-tales sign was that Gilles/Poirier’s program component scores were stronger than Fear/Gibson’s, and that could very well be the advantage that they have in what could be an incredibly close finish for the bronze.
4. Lilah Fear/Lewis Gibson GBR - At the Grand Prix Final, where Fear/Gibson and Gilles/Poirier faced off the last time, it was Fear/Gibson who prevailed by less than a tenth of a point. And it was also Fear/Gibson who won the rhythm dance in the Team Event here. Fear has been a bit more tentative than usual in her twizzles this season—it showed up at Europeans and it’s showed up in practices here in Milan. Will that be the difference?
5. Charlene Guignard/Marco Fabbri ITA - The home team has had a season of struggles. But after a late start, some confusing Grand Prix scores, and a number of changes to their programs later, they are at the Olympics looking like medal contenders again. It’s likely that they will be a few points behind Gilles/Poirier and Fear/Gibson if they are all comparably clean, so it will be important for them to feed off this home crowd and channel their energy as much as they can.
6. Evgeniia Lopareva/Geoffrey Brissaud FRA - Like Guignard/Fabbri, Lopareva/Brissaud also had something of a late start to their season, mostly that their programs took a bit of baking for them to feel comfortable to both them and to the judges. They have certainly found their stride again, taking fourth at Europeans a few weeks back and really looking like they could be the ones who could surprise the top five.
7. Allison Reed/Saulius Ambrulevicius LTU - They have been on a roll since they started the season having to just qualify their spot to the Olympics. But their early preparation paid off and set them on a trajectory toward their best season yet, including a berth to the Grand Prix Final. They were uncharacteristically shaky at Europeans, and that took them out of the running for the top 4 there. They have a chance to right the ship here.
8. Marjorie Lajoie/Zachary Lagha CAN - They’ve lost a bit of ground over the past couple of seasons, going from a team that could potentially be the up-and-coming challengers for a podium finish to staying in the 5th-8th range among the top teams. They will be looking to surprise this week—their 120-point free dance in the Team Event with a couple minor errors means that their ceiling could be higher.
9. Emilea Zingas/Vadym Kolesnik USA - Like Reed/Ambrulevicius, Zingas/Kolesnik has also had a breakthrough season that saw them qualify for the Grand Prix Final. They are in the select category of teams that have scored over 200 points this season, and that should stand them well as they look for a top ten finish on the biggest stage.
10. Olivia Smart/Tim Dieck ESP - Sixth at Worlds last season, Smart/Dieck has a knack for innovative and eye-catching choreography, particularly in the free dance. Their rhythm dance this season is where they might not get to the kind of placement that allows them to be in contention for a surprise top five. But they did finish third in the free dance at last year’s Worlds—a surprise could always be in store.
Top 11-20
11. Diana Davis/Gleb Smolkin GEO
12. Juulia Turkkia/Matthias Versluis FIN
13. Christina Carreira/Anthony Ponomarenko USA
14. Katerina Mrazkova/Daniel Mrazek CZE
15. Natalie Taschlerova/Filip Taschler CZE
16. Hannah Lim/Ye Quan KOR
17. Phebe Bekker/James Hernandez GBR
18. Milla Ruud Reitan/Nikolaj Majorov SWE
19. Marie-Jade Lauriault/Romain le Gac CAN
20. Holly Harris/Jason Chan AUS