Will the chaotic nature of the past few seasons of men’s figure skating culminate in the ultimate chaos at the 2026 Winter Olympics? Or will we see a set of phenomenal programs from these very talented guys? If the Team Event this past weekend were any indication, we might see more of the latter than the former—but the possibility of chaos is always right around the corner. Prior to this week, many thought that Ilia Malinin’s position as heavy favorite for gold had a good bit of security, but the nerves he had in the Team Event and the fearlessness of Yuma Kagiyama’s short program skate in the Team Event made many rethink their predictions.
Winter Olympics predictions
Official hashtags: #MilanoCortina2026 #Olympics
GOLD Ilia Malinin USA - There was a lot of panic all around after Malinin made mistakes in both programs of the Team Event. But the fact of the matter is, he’s human and isn’t immune to the nerves of skating at his first Olympics. With Team gold under his belt, you better believe he’s refocused for the individual event to make his case to add another Olympic gold in a matter of a week. What we know is that, as some have already said but no one has seemed to believe until this week, he is not invincible. But how much does he adjust his strategy to chance making history versus increase his chances to skate cleanly? We will see.
SILVER Yuma Kagiyama JPN - With perhaps one of the grandest free skates we’ve seen this season, Kagiyama comes into this individual event having just defeated Malinin in the Team Event short program. He was magnificent in that skate, and he will need to be equally magnificent in two more programs this week if he can find a way to pull of the upset for gold. His free skate has been a gauntlet for him, and he’s upgraded back to a four-quad layout for Milan, but it will be a moment for the ages if he can go clean in that program.
BRONZE Kao Miura JPN - I made this prediction even before Four Continents and I’m sticking to it, even after the news today that Miura is skating on a damaged boot from the landing of a triple axel. He’s well-known for being one of the most absolutely chaotic skaters in this men’s field. At his best, his power and his jumps are some of the greatest in the world. He found himself on the outside looking in early this season and crawled his way back to make the Japanese Olympic team and then win Four Continents on his way to Milan. It’s time for it to all come together.
4. Shun Sato JPN - A thrilling free skate in the Team Event gave Sato a personal best score and sets him up for a great individual Olympic debut. But amid the clean jumps that he had in the Team Event, he also got overexcited and had a shaky step sequence and lost levels on spins. He will want to clean those up but also keep doing what he’s been doing all season, which is to be consistent and go clean—that’s his key to the podium.
5. Petr Gumennik AIN - In only his second international competition since 2021 due to Russia’s ban from ISU events, the new Russian champion earned his spot at the Olympic Qualifying Event in September, and he has improved since then. He’s got a high level of difficulty planned in his two programs—the question will be how clean they will be, and how well the judges will reward him if he does skate to his potential.
6. Adam Siao Him Fa FRA - The World bronze medalist two years ago, Siao hasn’t been able to capitalize on his great potential. At his best, he’s very much a podium contender here, but it’s been a couple of seasons of great inconsistency that have kept him from being at his best. He wisely took the time after a subpar French Nationals and opted out of Europeans to reset for the Olympics, and his practices this week have been very good. Watch out if he can figure it out this week.
7. Matteo Rizzo ITA - It was thrilling—Rizzo’s career-best skate in the Team Event propelled Team Italy to a first ever medal in that event. And he helped the home team embrace its underdog status and outperformed expectations. But now he’s only had two days to come down from that incredible high to reset for the individual event. If he can skate like he did in the Team Event and once again harness the incredible energy of the arena, he could finally get himself into the top ten in his third Games.
8. Junhwan Cha KOR - After a truly difficult fall season where he could not figure out how to fix his boot issues, he got it figured out just in time for the second half of the season, and he’s been on a very solid streak since late November. His silver at Four Continents was a really solid return to form, and set him up for his third Olympic Games appearance. The short program in the Team Event wasn’t his best, but a clean quad salchow usually means his mind is in the right spot.
9. Stephen Gogolev CAN - It’s been a transformative season for Gogolev. With injuries behind him, he can trust his skating again. It feels like ages since we first saw him as a very talented junior skater, and after almost quitting the sport because of injuries, he’s made it to the biggest stage. And he’s doing his best skating at precisely the right time. If the Team Event were any indication, he might have a very good week here.
10. Andrew Torgashev USA - He seems to have switched into a different gear even post-Nationals, where he was locked in for his free skate. There’s a business-like attitude but also ease to his training here that I have never seen from Torgashev before, and it could bode really well for his chances at the top 10 this week.
Top 11-24
11. Kevin Aymoz FRA
12. Nika Egadze GEO -
13. Daniel Grassl ITA
14. Lukas Britschgi SUI
15. Mikhail Shaidorov KAZ
16. Boyang Jin CHN
17. Aleksandr Selevko EST
18. Deniss Vasiljevs LAT
19. Vladimir Samoilov POL
20. Vladimir Litvintsev AZE
21. Adam Hagara SVK
22. Andreas Nordeback SWE
23. Kyrylo Marsak UKR
24. Donovan Carrillo MEX