Four years ago, Team Italy was the surprise in the short program segment of the Team Event, eventually finishing fourth after also skating super well in the free skate. Will we see another surprise team this year? It does seem like there are three teams who will separate themselves from the pack, and then another three (or even four) teams who will be fighting for the remaining two spots left for the free skate. In an ordinals-based team scoring system, every little bit counts, especially for the short program. It doesn’t matter how close you are; it only matters that you have beaten the competitors below you.
Because of the importance of the short program in the overall strategy of the Team Event, it is very likely that teams will put their highest potential scoring entries in the short.
2022 Winter Olympics Team Event predictions
Official hashtag: #Beijing2022
Methodology of predictions: The ranges of team scores are based on realistic scenarios of finishes of the potential entries based on 10+ scenarios for team finishes. Asterisk * denotes entries for which there may be more than one skater/team that can be put in those spots
Note: After the first team spots were announced, Ivan Shmuratko (UKR) and Minerva Fabienne Hase/Nolan Seegert (GER) withdrew after testing positive for COVID (Shmuratko, Seegert)
1. Russian Olympic Committee - 31-35 points
Projected team: Kondratiuk*, Valieva*, Mishina/Galliamov*, Sinitsina/Katsalapov*
The ROC team has been the favorites for team gold for quite a while, given that they have the realistic possibility of winning three of the four events in the short program. Their biggest question mark will come in the men’s event, where the potential of Mark Kondratiuk is the most volatile in placement. If Kondratiuk goes clean in the short, expect them to go into the free skate with an almost insurmountable lead.
2. United States - 28-34 points
Projected team: Chen*, Bell or Chen*, Knierim/Frazier*, Hubbell/Donohue or Chock/Bates*
Four years ago, Nathan Chen opened his Olympics with a poor short program in the Team Event that set the tone for his Olympics. As much as this is not necessarily a redemption storyline given how he’s skated over the past four years since PyeongChang, this Team Even twill likely also set the tone for his Olympics again. The variability in Team USA’s point totals will come in the women’s event and the pairs’ event - clean skates will be crucial for them to potentially keep it close with ROC and/or put themselves in position to beat Japan for the silver.
3. Japan - 27-30 points
Projected team: Uno*, Sakamoto*, Miura/Kihara, Komatsubara/Koleto
The addition of Riku Miura/Ryuichi Kihara is what makes Team Japan go from fifth four years ago to a legitimate medal favorite this year. Look at it this way, Miu Suzaki/Ryuichi Kihara were eighth four years ago in the short, and that was the highest finish they were expected to have. Miura/Kihara have the potential to be top three or four, which adds a whole lot more points to their total. Misato Komatsubara/Tim Koleto could also be key to silver or bronze, especially in the rhythm dance, where there are so many teams who could be within 4-5 points of each other. Singles will once again be their strength (given his potential arrival date, Yuzuru Hanyu will likely not be doing the Team Event).
4. Canada - 20-27 points
Projected team: Sadovsky, Schizas, Moore-Towers/Marinaro or James/Radford*, Gilles/Poirier*
With Keegan Messing out of at least the short program of the Team Event because of his already delayed departure from Canada due to COVID, Roman Sadovsky has become a very key player in Canada’s quest to qualify for the free skate. He really could finishing anywhere from fourth to tenth, depending on what kind of day he has with the jumps. Similarly, whichever pair is chosen for the short program will have a similar task, especially given both pairs’ inconsistency this season. But I would imagine that Kirsten Moore-Towers/Michael Marinaro would get the nod for the short given their most recent performances at Canadians. Look for those two entries to be the make or break for their free skate chances.
5. China - 19-25 points
Projected team: Jin, Zhu, Sui/Han*, Wang/Liu
Team China’s chances at the free skate will likely hinge on the performance of Boyang Jin, who has all the goods to be placing in the top three or four in the short program. If the home team makes it to the free skate, his performance would be the clincher, as the other three entries likely have a small range of placement possibilities.
6. Georgia - 17-23 points
Team: Kvitelashvili, Gubanova, Safina/Berulava, Kazakova/Reviya
Could Team Georgia be the PyeongChang Team Italy in Beijing? They certainly have a shot, but they come in with four entries who are either first-time Olympians or, in the case of Morisi Kvitelashvili, completely unpredictable. Similarly, Anastasiia Gubanova and Karina Safina/Luka Berulava could put in some surprise performances. Their path to the free skate will have to come with breakout performances, and they certainly can’t afford any disasters.
7. Italy - 16-21 points
Projected team: Grassl*, Gutmann, Della Monica/Guarise*, Guignard/Fabbri
Team Italy has an outside shot at getting back into the free skate. With Lara Naki Gutmann not having a particularly high ceiling in her score or placement potential, Daniel Grassl skating a clean program would be a must in that scenario, and Nicole Della Monica/Matteo Guarise will need to conjure up some of the magic that they had during their heyday before injury derailed their confidence.