Following the conclusion of Skate America, the Grand Prix Final picture is becoming clear. Exactly half of the 24 spots for the Grand Prix Final have been accounted for, which means there are still a number of spots that will be determined this week at Finlandia Trophy. Below are those who have qualified and the rest who are still in contention, and their probabilities of making it to Nagoya.
2025 Grand Prix standings and scenarios
ICE DANCE
Of the four disciplines, ice dance somehow became the most intriguing of them all. With Finlandia remaining, there are still more than nine teams mathematically still in it, and the deep field at Finlandia Trophy could make it very interesting for those final spots.
VERY HIGH: Fournier Beaudry/Cizeron, Gilles/Porier, Reed/Ambrulevicius
The two favorites vying for the title at Finlandia Trophy this week, Laurence Fournier Beaudry/Guillaume Cizeron and Piper Gilles/Paul Poirier both bring in a win from their previous event, which means that all they will need is 4th or higher to qualify for the Final. For Allison Reed/Saulius Ambrulevicius, their tiebreak win over Marjorie Lajoie/Zachary Lajoie means that they are practically qualified. There is a few incredibly low probability scenarios that take them out—for example, Smart/Dieck or Taschlerova/Taschler win, Zingas/Kolesnik second, Fournier Beaudry/Cizeron and Gilles/Poirier third and fourth in either order
MEDIUM-HIGH: Zingas/Kolesnik; MEDIUM: Lajoie/Lagha
I group these because they are very dependent on each other. There is a high likelihood that Fournier Beaudry/Cizeron and Gilles/Poirier take the top two spots. And so if Emilea Zingas/Vadym Kolesnik get bronze, that sets them up very well for qualifying the last spot. They would be in a tiebreak with Reed/Ambrulevicius and Marjorie Lajoie/Zachary Lagha, and given their score from Cup of China earlier, Zingas/Kolesnik would likely win that tiebreak over Lajoie/Lagha.
Now, the spoiler to that would be the possibility of Smart/Dieck (or less likely to happen, Taschlerova/Taschler) beating Zingas/Kolesnik for that bronze. In that case, Lajoie/Lagha go to the Final.
EXTREMELY LOW: Smart/Dieck, Taschlerova/Taschler, Davis/Smolkin, Lopareva/Brissaud
For any of these three teams to make it to the Final, lots of teams will either have to implode massively and/or withdraw from the competition. Olivia Smart/Tim Dieck getting silver with Zingas/Kolesnik getting 4th AND winning the tiebreak over Zingas/Kolesnik would be the most likely scenario here, and that is extremely unlikely.
WOMEN
HIGH to VERY HIGH: Mone Chiba, Amber Glenn
Coming in with 15 points from their respective wins, Mone Chiba and Amber Glenn both need fourth or higher to make it to the Final, so plenty of room for both of them at Finlandia.
MEDIUM-HIGH: Rinka Watanabe; MEDIUM: Rion Sumiyoshi; LOW-MEDIUM: Loena Hendrickx
Rinka Watanabe is currently on the bubble, and if Chiba and Glenn take the top two spots in either order, she’s into the Final. Now, the spoiler there would be Rion Sumiyoshi getting gold or silver—Sumiyoshi winning the whole thing gets her into the Final, silver would also likely get her into the Final given Chiba or Glenn win, especially because she comes in with a very big tiebreak score that will give her an advantage over Watanabe in case of the 13+11 tie. Now, the OTHER spoiler to that would be Loena Hendrickx, who also would make it with a win, but have a lower tiebreak chance because her NHK Trophy score was not nearly as high. Lots could happen here.
LOW: Bradie Tennell
Bradie Tennell would basically need to win Finlandia to make it to the Final.
EXTREMELY LOW: Isabeau Levito, Anastasiia Gubanova, Bradie Tennell, Lorine Schild, Rino Matsuike
They are mathematically still in it, but it would take a bunch of upsets and/or withdrawals
X-FACTOR: Sofia Samodelkina
I don’t think I’ve ever had an X-factor scenario before, but it’s certainly a unique situation. Sofia Samodelkina was originally not assigned to any Grand Prix events, but when withdrawals opened up spots, she competed at NHK Trophy and won silver. And after Niina Petrokina withdrew from Finlandia, Samodelkina was invited to Finlandia as well, but she has not gotten her visa yet to go to Finland. If she’s able to make it to Finland this week, there would be a real shake-up in the scenarios. Her 13 points coming in put her in a medium probability scenario to get to the Final.
MEN
Kevin Aymoz’s win at Skate America last week threw a whole menning-sized wrench into the whole thing. Aymoz is nowhere close to qualifying because of his 10th place earlier this season, but it meant that others did not get higher qualifying points.
VERY HIGH: Yuma Kagiyama, Adam Siao Him Fa
Yuma Kagiyama and Adam Siao Him Fa, the two favorites for the title at Finlandia, Kagiyama needs to finish sixth or higher and Siao needs to finish fifth or higher to get into the Final. Simple as that.
MEDIUM-HIGH: Daniel Grassl; LOW-MEDIUM: Jason Brown
Somehow, because of all the menning of the season, Daniel Grassl finds himself on the cusp of qualifying for another Grand Prix Final. The only skater outside of Kagiyama and Siao who can pass him is Jason Brown.
Brown needs silver or higher to guarantee a berth to the Final, because bronze would tie him with Grassl, but Grassl takes the tiebreak because of his silver at Cup of China. There are other scenarios in which both he and Grassl make it, but those would require Kagiyama or Siao to finish 7th or lower.
EXTREMELY LOW: Kazuki Tomono, Lukas Britschgi
They are mathematically still in it, but it would take a bunch of upsets and/or withdrawals
PAIRS
HIGH: Hase/Volodin
With 13 points from their silver at Skate Canada, Minerva Fabienne Hase/Nikita Volodin get to the Final with gold or silver. Bronze and they would have to win a tiebreak.
MEDIUM-HIGH: Pavlova/Sviatchenko; LOW-MEDIUM: Kam/O’Shea
The likelihood is that one of these two teams make it. If Ellie Kam/Danny O’Shea win Finlandia, they are in; if they get silver, they will need 200.94+ points to win the tiebreak. Maria Pavlova/Alexei Sviatchenko’s big NHK Trophy score gives them quite an edge here for that GPF spot.
LOW: Nagaoka/Moriguchi; VERY LOW: Zhang/Huang, Pereira/Michaud
Yuna Nagaoka/Sumitada Moriguchi need to win Finlandia to get to the Final; silver still mathematically gives them a shot but it’s basically a zero percentage shot. Exactly the same for Jiaxuan Zhang/Yihang Huang and Lia Pereira/Trennt Michaud, but they have a lower probability at winning Finlandia.
EXTREMELY LOW: Sui/Han, Efimova/Mitrofanov, Ghilardi/Ambrosini
They are mathematically still in it, but it would take a bunch of upsets and/or withdrawals